June 2011 National Retail Sales Results

Consumer behavior during June turned the corner. A report released Thursday by Bloomberg said that consumer confidence reached its highest level in 10 weeks, thanks to falling gas prices and despite a 9.1% unemployment rate. June sales for nationwide retailers show consistent growth in consumer spending.

Winning Retail PerformancesThe fashion winners include Limited Brands with a 12.0% comparable store increase, followed closely by Buckle, Zumiez and Abercrombie with 10.8%, 9.8% and 10.0% comp store increases, respectively. Footwear is hot, hot, and hot. Foot Locker turned-in a 12.8% increase followed closely by DSW at 10.8% for their first quarter.

Department stores continue to speak to their customers. Macys delivered a solid 6.7% comp increase on $2.39B in sales, followed by Nordstrom at 7.9% and Neiman-Marcus at 12.5%. Kohl's led their segment with a 7.5% comp increase on $1.7B in sales, one of their best showings this year.

Costco continued their march with a 14.0% comparable store increase following their 13.0% increase in May. And, the home area is coming to life. Ethan Allen posted a 13.4% increase. Pier 1 and Cost Plus continued good numbers during their first quarter, with 10.2% and 5.5% comp store increases, respectively.

Yahoo Finance released that, two years after the end of the Great Recession, the auto industry is hiring again -- and much faster than the rest of the economy. Expect blockbuster reports out of new car sales. All the auto parts retailers are reporting June growth in the 5 - 6% range.

The Retail MarketplaceAnalysts polled by Thompson-Reuters expected a 4.9% rise in June same-store sales. As the numbers are coming-in it's clear that retailers are beating those estimates.

The Candidate MarketAccording to 24 Seven's Fifth Annual Salary Survey, conducted in collaboration with the American Apparel & Footwear Association, 68% of respondents plan to make a career move in the next year, with nearly half already looking for a new job. Reported by Katherine Field Boccaccio of NY.

Many executive and management candidates have been doing two jobs for some time. As downsizing occurred during 2008-2009 bonuses and pay increases were deferred. Expect these candidates to be among the first to consider changing companies in the next 12 months. Having open and honest discussions about compensation will be a powerful retention tool during 2011. Once a candidate begins interviewing with outside companies their decision to leave is largely done.

In an updated study Darrell Smith, a job front editor for the Sacramento Bee, reaffirmed that the unemployment rate for College educated candidates remains at 4.5%. This compares to high-school educated who have an overall 9.5% unemployment rate. As an employer this means your target talent is employed. Want them? You'll have to attract them away from your competitor.

Click here for June National Retail Sales Results

May 2011 National Retail Sales Results

In contrast to the past months of consistent growth May sales growth was more selective. Costco led the pack with a whopping 13% comparable store performance, but there were several upscale department stores who also performed well. Saks delivered a 20.2% increase with Neiman Marcus up 12% and Macys at 7.4% for the period.

The Retail Marketplace
After robust April sales both Target and Kohl’s saw sales increases retreat to 2.8% and 0.8%, respectively. Consumer behavior during May was counter to the trend of earlier months, even with fuel prices softening. There is no doubt some concern about the daily swings we’re seeing on Wall Street and such activity affects consumer thinking.

In retail we have always said, “You can’t blame it on the weather.” Well, there is little doubt that some parts of the country have been hard hit by unseasonably cold, rainy weather. A couple weeks of seasonally-appropriate weather should normalize such results so expect June to return to our past year trend of strength and confidence in customer activity.

The Candidate Market
The talent pool for every retail category continues to be good. The more specialized the skills and experience wanted the longer it typically takes to locate a slate of top candidates. There is a reason why it’s called search. Bulk email campaigns are helpful but at day-end it’s calling candidates on the phone and talking with them about the value of an opportunity that really delivers rock star talent.

Expect candidates to research a company’s performance and look for competitive compensation in the offer package. We typically advise both our retail partners and the candidates being presented that they should expect some creativity to make the offer a good fit for their circumstances. The good news…because of the number of opportunities out there candidates are far more open to making a change than they were last year.

Unemployment
Current programs to impact unemployment are minimal. Retail continues to be a strong contributor to private sector job growth. College-educated professionals lead with only a 4% unemployment rate. Several Economist articles estimate that we will not see pre-Great Recession unemployment numbers for several years.

Click here for May National Retail Sales Results

April 2011 National Retail Sales Results

We're very excited to share April Nationwide Retail Sales Results. April retail sales are now available at the below link. April continues to show strong growth across most retail channels. Easter fell 3 weeks later this year, netting an 8.9% increase overall in the Reuters Same-Store Sales Index.

There were initial concerns that increasing fuel costs would force a consumer retreat but such a concern has quickly faded. Our consumer economy is moving ahead so rapidly that retail market experts appear to be scrambling to keep up with trends.

Consumer Credit Highest in 2 YearsThe Fed Reserve announced that consumers used their credit cards more last month than any time since the height of the financial crisis. For a 6th consecutive month consumers increased borrowing for auto loans, furniture and electronics. The increase in credit card purchases sends a clear signal that consumers are more confident about the economy. Credit card use was up 3% last month.

The Retail MarketplaceCostco was up 12.0% after a 13.0% increase in March. Target stores pushed forward with a 13.1% increase for April. Limited Brands delivered a 20.0% increase. Macys and other department stores produced solid increases in the 10% range for April.

The Candidate MarketRock star talent is being lost to competitors because the interview process is too slow. You snooze, you lose, especially in retail.

Understanding skills is only part of the equation to successfully attract and deliver a desirable candidate in our current market. Getting creative with relocation support, incentive programs and other areas is increasingly important to attract and relocate an outstanding hire that will impact company results.

Unemployment
With unemployment for college-educated professionals continuing in the 4% range companies will continue to lose high demand candidates. For example, as companies begin to re-activate their marketing programs we are seeing a huge demand for retail marketers. The challenge is getting companies to complete the interview process on a timely basis so the candidate is not lost to another competitor's opportunity. Retailers who move aggressively to acquire talent will dominate the 2nd half of 2011. Retail has never been an industry where leaders win by taking a wait-and-see approach.

Click here for April National Retailer Sales Results

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