No question about it! Comparable store sales results are becoming consistently stronger across the retail landscape. The NRF and ICSC have stepped forward with their projections for holiday - we have reason to be encouraged! In fact, the National Retail Federation released a report expressing optimism for the coming holiday season. The Washington, D.C. based trade group forecasts holiday retail sales to reach $447.1 billion this year, up 2.3% from 2009. It would be the best holiday for retailers in four years, after sales were flat last year and fell 3.9% in 2008. Last week, the International Council of Shopping Centers released its own forecast for the holidays, projecting sales will rise as much as 3.5%.

Several retailers continue aggressive, double-digit growth. Examples are Abercrombie & Fitch, Limited Brands and Zumiez, each up 12-17%. Department stores gained strength with consistent comp store increases in the 4-7% range. Nordstrom again led the way with a 7.5% comparable store increase.

Exceptions. Yes, there are a few retailers who haven’t given their customers assortments to be excited about like Hot Topic at -2.6%, and Pac Sun at -10.0%.

A straightforward consolidated summary is below. These results are what retailers were hoping-for as they finalize 2011 budgets.

Unemployment
We like to see straight numbers, without the PR spin. The facts straight from BLS dated Friday, October 8, 2010 are as follows:

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.8 million, was essentially unchanged in September, and the unemployment rate held at 9.6%. According to the Labor Department, total U.S. private-sector employment grew by 67,000 positions in August, the eighth consecutive month of job growth.

Recruiting
Do you have positions which continue to remain open despite several weeks/months of interviewing? If so, what’s the real cost to your organization? Have you recently had to “settle” on simply filling a position without feeling like you’ve interviewed the best talent from your competition?

Have you thought about having a professional search organization bring forward your competition’s best talent so you can interview them? Perhaps it’s time to develop a relationship with the Retail Search Group team. They’re the finest retail specialists in the search industry.

Click here for September National Retail Sales Results

For many retailers August is the launch pad for their fall season. The comparable store sales coming out of August were solid. In fashion, Limited Brands led the charge with a whopping 10% comparable store increase after a 12% July increase!

The Wall Street Journal responded, "Retailers were delivered a late-summer surprise, with sales for the key back-to-school shopping month coming in better than expected." Reuters surveyed Wall Street analysts and expected a 2.5% rise in comparable stores. The results were a rise of 3.3% over 2009 sales. According to Market Watch, retail stocks responded immediately, with many continuing their recent gains.

Specialty apparel had several bright spots, with Chico's FAS reporting a 6.4% increase on top of a 14.9% increase the prior quarter. The Department store sector performed strongly again, with Nordstrom's 6.5% comparable store increase leading the group. With few exceptions, apparel is beginning to show consistent positive growth.

Attention to assortments has lifted both Cost Plus and Pier 1 as leaders in their segment, with Cost Plus releasing +6.5% comparable stores for the quarter ending 8/19.

A straightforward consolidated summary is below. As an early indicator for the fall 2010 season these results are encouraging. The numbers tell us that the consumer is definitely looking for new assortments and solid value.

Unemployment
According to the Labor Department, total U.S. private-sector employment grew by 67,000 positions in August, the eighth consecutive month of job growth.

Total U.S. employment fell by 54,000 positions after factoring in government jobs, including 114,000 temporary census workers who were let go. The unemployment rate rose from 9.5 to 9.6 percent, driven mostly by an increase in people who completed temporary work-including census workers-and new entrants.

Recruiting
If a candidate search is in your plans for the fall 2010 season call one of our Directors now. Have a dialogue about timing and the nature of the candidate you want to attract. Why? The reason is simple. Locating and attracting the best candidate takes time. Poor performers rarely become top performers. And, a top performer delivers goals. Your competition sees what is happening and they are moving ahead. Year-to-date through August 2010 our placements are up over 80%. Based upon retail sales trends the industry will be highly competitive for top "impact" players as we approach 2011.

Click here for August National Retail Sales Results

The numbers in retail always tell the story and July retail industry sales make a clear statement: retail is continuing its positive growth as we move into third quarter of 2010. The past months show that specialty hard lines, home, footwear and automotive are continuing as top performers. The flagship department store group continues to put up solid comparable store growth, with Macy’s dominating. For many of these retailers July marked the fourth straight month of comparable store growth over 2009. Even though last year’s results were disappointing you can clearly see the industry moving in the right direction.

The overall industry increase was again in the 3% range, showing consistent growth, but we have retailers on both sides of that number. Although several analysts reported results below their expectations we are pleased to see a consistently positive trend across most brands. Exceptions to this are few, such as the struggling Hot Topic, posting yet another month of declining comparable store sales with a 9% drop vs. 2009 results. Contrast this to Limited Brands posting a 12% increase vs. last year.

The description “slow and steady” best describes the overall recovery trend. A consolidated summary is below. The numbers tell the story.

Unemployment
Total employment in the United States fell by 131,000 positions in July as the unemployment rate remained at 9.5%, according to new figures released from the Labor Department. The most significant losses were seen in the government as 202,000 jobs were shed. The end of 143,000 temporary census jobs made up the bulk of losses, however, cash strapped state and local governments also trimmed 48,000 positions.

Total private sector employment increased for the seventh month in a row, adding 71,000 positions. The professional, management and related occupation unemployment rate in July was 5.0%, down from 5.5% a year ago.

Recruiting
Virtually every practice at Retail Search Group is managing dramatically increased demand over 2009. Our candidate placement activity on a year-over-year basis is up 40%.

Retail CEOs know what is ahead and they are committed to securing leadership teams of the best talent. Even currently-employed, high demand candidates are now willing to consider change when the right opportunity is presented. This is a significant market change from a few months ago.


Click here to view July Retail Sales Results